Tropical Low Brewing in the Caribbean Father’s Day Weekend

Chances continue to increase for a tropical low to develop in the Caribbean for Father’s Day weekend. The time-frame for any tropical formation is Sunday-Tuesday.

So the big question on everyone’s minds, will we have a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico?

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Infrared Satellite of the northwestern Caribbean valid for 17:00Z.

The answer is much more complicated than a simple “yes” or “no”. Storminess is beginning to increase across the northwestern Caribbean, however a disturbance has not been detected yet and Wilkens Weather is not expecting tropical development over the next 24 hours. Several factors are analyzed when forecasting tropical weather including sea surface temperatures (SST), vertical wind shear, and tropical atmospheric moisture. The sea surface temperatures in the southern Gulf are around 28°C, indicating favorable conditions for development. Atmospheric moisture, explained in a previous blog here, surges into the southern Gulf this weekend providing ideal conditions for tropical development. The third and final key ingredient meteorologists are monitoring is vertical wind shear. Light winds are vital to sustain and strengthen the structure of tropical systems.Read More »

Where are the Christmas Winds?

The climate of Trinidad is strongly influenced by the North Atlantic High, also referred to as the Bermuda High or Azores High, based on its seasonal positioning. During the fall season, the Atlantic High moves southward in response to the southward push of low pressure systems and their associated cold fronts over North America and the North Atlantic. The high’s southward position and lower sea surface temperatures, north of 10°N, result in strong easterly trade winds across the eastern Caribbean during winter. This increase in winds typically occurs around mid to late December, giving them the seasonal name: the Christmas Winds.    Read More »

Major Hurricane Wilma, 11 years later

CIMSS NOAA Satellite Montage WilmaHurricane Wilma was the 21st named storm of the infamous 2005 Atlantic hurricane season. From her formation on October 15th to her demise on the 26th, Wilma would become one of the most memorable hurricanes in Atlantic basin history. As the 4th category 5 hurricane of the year, Wilma would become a monstrous bookend to an incredible, record-setting season.Read More »