Wilkens Weather’s annual spring outlook includes a forecast for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season. This spring, our meteorologists predicted a near normal 2017 Atlantic hurricane season with 12 named storms, including five hurricanes.
One of the key parameters factored into each year’s tropical outlook is the long-range forecast of the El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO). When our 2017 tropical outlook was initially released, long-range forecast models indicated a higher likelihood that an El Niño would develop than is currently being seen in recent climate models.
In late April, there was about a 50% likelihood that El Niño would develop over the tropical Pacific in the late summer months, extending into September. However, the most recent climate model issued by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University now projects a 35-45% likelihood of an El Niño phase developing over the next several months. With consideration to the updated ENSO forecast, Wilkens Weather has increased their 2017 Atlantic tropical outlook from 12 to 14 named storms, and 3 major hurricanes.
Since an El Niño phase in the central Pacific Ocean can produce a harsh environment for tropical development in the Atlantic basin, a reduced probability yields an increased chance of hurricanes in the North Atlantic. There is also consideration that the time frame for El Nino developing was before the peak of Atlantic hurricane season. Therefore, a lesser chance of El Nino would give a greater chance to more favorable atmospheric conditions for hurricanes during the peak season.
(Author’s Note: this forecast does not include Tropical Storm Arlene, which formed during the month of April before the official start of hurricane season. TS Arlene was only the second tropical storm on record during the satellite era to form during April in the Atlantic basin.)
Tropical cyclones have significant impacts on marine operations worldwide. Prior to experiencing tropical cyclone threats, offshore facilities must secure equipment, shut-in wells, and evacuate personnel. Operations can remain shut down for extended periods in the event that an offshore platform or rig is damaged or destroyed. Damaged pipelines along the seafloor are a common cause of interruptions to oil and gas supply.
To prevent structural damage and spills, control costs, and ensure the safety of personnel, accurate weather forecasts and advanced notification of tropical hazards are paramount. Even a weak tropical cyclone can produce hazardous weather conditions and put coastal and offshore operators at risk. Be sure to determine your exposure to the risks associated with tropical cyclones before the start of this Atlantic hurricane season.
Wilkens Weather provides a suite of online and mobile tracking tools to warn our customers of these risks. To be confident that you’re prepared this hurricane season, trust in the tropical expertise and tools provided by WWT: Read More »
The climate of Trinidad is strongly influenced by the North Atlantic High, also referred to as the Bermuda High or Azores High, based on its seasonal positioning. During the fall season, the Atlantic High moves southward in response to the southward push of low pressure systems and their associated cold fronts over North America and the North Atlantic. The high’s southward position and lower sea surface temperatures, north of 10°N, result in strong easterly trade winds across the eastern Caribbean during winter. This increase in winds typically occurs around mid to late December, giving them the seasonal name: the Christmas Winds. Read More »
It’s November 30th, officially the end of the Atlantic hurricane season. The 2016 season concluded with 15 named storms and seven hurricanes, three of which were major hurricanes. However this season was an unusual one to say the least.
Hurricane Wilma was the 21st named storm of the infamous 2005 Atlantic hurricane season. From her formation on October 15th to her demise on the 26th, Wilma would become one of the most memorable hurricanes in Atlantic basin history. As the 4th category 5 hurricane of the year, Wilma would become a monstrous bookend to an incredible, record-setting season.Read More »
Early Friday morning, Hurricane Matthew was downgraded to a Category 3 before brushing along the coast of Cape Canaveral. As of 12pm ET, the eye is less than 30 miles east-northeast of Daytona Beach, Florida. According to the National Hurricane Center, sustained winds have been reported up to 73 mph with gusts of 91 mph in Daytona Beach. However, the storm has yet to make an official landfall but that doesn’t mean we’ve lost our chance. The eyewall of Matthew is currently brushing along the Florida coast. With one slight wobble to the west in the next hour or two, we could see a U.S. landfall.
Hurricane Matthew has lived up to the hype it’s received the past few days. Less than 160 miles southeast of West Palm Beach, Florida, Matthew has strengthened once again to a Category 4 as the National Hurricane Center is conveying the message of an “extremely dangerous hurricane” heading for the East Coast.Read More »
To this date, the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season has recorded twelve named storms and one tropical depression, including Hurricane Alex from January. By the end of September we will likely see the next storm develop as signs of strengthening continue with an active tropical wave (97L). Currently, 97L is located roughly 470 miles east-southeast of Barbados tracking to the west about 15-20 knots. The tropical wave will either intensify into Tropical Depression Fourteen or Tropical Storm Matthew. The 30-year average (1981-2010) for the Atlantic basin consists of twelve named storms. With two months left in the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season, one can conclude that an above average recording of named storms will likely occur.