A dangerous heat wave, cold front, and tropical storm kick off summer 2017

Summer is officially underway in the northern hemisphere beginning today, June 20th. Quite the range of weather conditions are forecast across the United States today. In the East, a cold front moves offshore New England and stalls across the Carolinas. Showers and storms remain a threat near the stalled boundary from the Carolinas to the Gulf coast, while comfortable 50 degree dewpoints filter in behind the front in the Northeast. Cloudiness and rain chances will keep high temperatures near to below average across this region for the start of summer.

Residents along the Gulf Coast are watching a tropical storm brewing over the north central Gulf of Mexico. Louisiana residents are beginning to feel the effects from the outer rainbands of the storm. Flash Flood Watches are in effect from Southeast Louisiana to the eastern Florida Panhandle. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for portions of the Louisiana and Texas coastlines.

Across the Great Plains, temperatures are near average with mostly sunny skies to start the season. While this afternoon will be warm, in the upper 80s to low 90s, outdoor temperatures will feel more comfortable than they did over Father’s Day weekend. If you live in Central Oklahoma, like me, you may recall dewpoint temperatures climbing to 75 degrees Saturday morning, and persisting near 73 degrees through mid-afternoon. Dewpoint temperatures are a measure of moisture in the atmosphere, so higher dewpoints correlate to higher moisture content and humidity. Although the actual high temperature was only 92 degrees, when you factor in the moisture and humidity, the maximum heat index was 104 degrees.

What does this mean? Heat Index calculations use air temperature and dew point temperature to determine an “apparent” temperature, which is how your body feels when you are experiencing summer heat. The National Weather Service (NWS) Heat Index calculations are for shady areas, so it’s important to know that direct exposure to sunlight can increase the “apparent temperatures” by 10 to 15 degrees. High heat index values, generally over 100 degrees, are given an heightened awareness of hazardous outdoor conditions. Local NWS offices issue special heat advisories and excessive heat warnings for moderate to extreme heat indexes, when the risk of heat-related illnesses is highest. A day with a high heat index feels uncomfortable and sometimes oppressive. Sweat is slow to evaporate and the body struggles to cool down. Direct exposure to the sun only exaggerates this. 

But, it’s not just the feel-like temperatures that are uncomfortable and dangerous. In the desert southwest, temperatures are normally in the 100s in June with very low dewpoints. The start of the 2017 summer will be no different with above average, and potentially record-breaking heat, forecast across much of the Southwest.

Heat advisories and excessive heat warnings are in effect for Arizona and portions of California and Nevada through Friday. Hot summer days in the desert can feel like you are walking into an oven! Outdoor structures, such as playgrounds, are often unusable. A recent test in Tuscon, Arizona found that a children’s slide in the sun can reach 150 degrees, which is more than hot enough to cause a second-degree burn.

Heat Safety NWS Vegas.png

Take precautions and stay safe during the 2017 summer season!

 

Why we treat some Invest areas like tropical storms…

It’s critical that offshore operators are aware of tropical hazards well in advance of tropical storm development. 

Tropical Storm Bill, June 16 2015
Infrared Satellite of Tropical Storm Bill approaching the Texas coast.

Two years ago we were monitoring an area of disturbed weather near the Yucatan Peninsula. At the time, forecast models indicated that a trough of low pressure would move offshore the Yucatan within the next 24 hours and form a closed circulation as it tracked northwest toward the Texas coastal bend. Hurricane Carlos, off the southern coast of Mexico, was feeding in abundant tropical moisture from the Pacific, aiding thunderstorm development. Over the next few days, upper-level winds over the Gulf weakened, enhancing convection and improving the low-level circulation. Within 36 hours a tropical storm was designated over the northern Gulf of Mexico. About 15 hours later, Tropical Storm Bill made landfall over Matagorda Island, Texas with maximum sustained winds near 60 mph.Read More »

Hurricane Preparedness: Offshore Operations

Tropical cyclones have significant impacts on marine operations worldwide. Prior to experiencing tropical cyclone threats, offshore facilities must secure equipment, shut-in wells, and evacuate personnel. Operations can remain shut down for extended periods in the event that an offshore platform or rig is damaged or destroyed. Damaged pipelines along the seafloor are a common cause of interruptions to oil and gas supply.

To prevent structural damage and spills, control costs, and ensure the safety of personnel, accurate weather forecasts and advanced notification of tropical hazards are paramount. Even a weak tropical cyclone can produce hazardous weather conditions and put coastal and offshore operators at risk. Be sure to determine your exposure to the risks associated with tropical cyclones before the start of this Atlantic hurricane season.

Wilkens Weather provides a suite of online and mobile tracking tools to warn our customers of these risks. To be confident that you’re prepared this hurricane season, trust in the tropical expertise and tools provided by WWT: Read More »

A Review of Houston Heavy Rain Events in 2015-2016

April 16, 2016 Houston Flood Olivia Kintigh
Houston Tax Day Flood 2016

Houston, Texas rainfall was above average (49 inches) in 2015 and 2016. This was in sharp contrast to the 24 inch deficit in rainfall a few years prior. 2015 was the 5th wettest year on record for Houston, with 70.03 inches at KIAH and 77.13 inches at KHOU. Records at KIAH and KHOU, date back to 1889. Here’s a look back at the heavy rainfall events that resulted in these excessive totals:Read More »

Where are the Christmas Winds?

The climate of Trinidad is strongly influenced by the North Atlantic High, also referred to as the Bermuda High or Azores High, based on its seasonal positioning. During the fall season, the Atlantic High moves southward in response to the southward push of low pressure systems and their associated cold fronts over North America and the North Atlantic. The high’s southward position and lower sea surface temperatures, north of 10°N, result in strong easterly trade winds across the eastern Caribbean during winter. This increase in winds typically occurs around mid to late December, giving them the seasonal name: the Christmas Winds.    Read More »

South China Sea Monsoon Low

WWT Satellite Monsoon LowOver the past several days, an area of low pressure (Invest 91W) developed within the monsoon trough/ITCZ, generating bands of showers and thunderstorms across the southern South China Sea. As a result, fresh winds extended to the Borneo coast and Malay Peninsula over the weekend. Strong to near-gale force northerly winds also occurred along the northwest side of the low when it intensified this morning. Global models often underdo monsoon winds within these lows and these systems should always be monitored closely for tropical development. Read More »

Weather Forecasting in the Adriatic

WWT Adriatic Sea WaterspoutHigh terrain extending across Italy and central Europe yield a challenging environment for weather forecasting in the northern Adriatic Sea, especially during the winter months. The Alps, 120 miles wide with several peaks over 15,000 ft, block colder air to the north and often deflect it to the east over the Balkan States. The cooler air accumulates over the Balkan Peninsula, eventually reaching the height of the mountain passes. This induces a Bora, a local downslope wind effect that is common and at times violent during the cold season, usually from October through March. The Bora is one of two local winds that impact marine customers in this region. The other being Sirocco winds, a strong southeast wind, which often build over the course of a couple of days ahead of a Bora or impending low pressure system and is usually forecast with less uncertainty.Read More »

Wilkens Weather tracks 8 storms in the West Pacific this August

WWT West Pacific Tropical Summary

The West Pacific Ocean was quite active last week, with 2-3 concurrent storms. This recent tropical activity, while not unprecedented, has been above average.  Over the past several weeks, an upward Madden-Julian Oscillation phase extending across the West Pacific coupled with the existing monsoon trough.  This pattern has yielded eight named storms since August 3, the most recent being Typhoon Lionrock. Read More »